IAFL Family, today we have a guest writer (Steven Logan). Steven is a good friend and has a very strong showing in fantasy football as well as different outlooks compared to the every day baller. So without further adieu, here is a quick article to give you some great buy low/sell high candidates.
The way I started looking at fantasy football is a lot different then others, most people when they play fantasy football they will focus on players and teams and a lot of other factors. I want to dive into a different method of this. I want to place value on every player and instead of their names look at what their value is. This could be draft value, team value etc. Today I want to apply this to a couple players and see what we can uncover when we look behind the name and last weeks fantasy score. I will tell you about some targets that you may want to buy or sell and give you both sides of the argument so you can make your own decisions. Fantasy football trades are about risks and nobody can ever guarantee, only guess and make an appropriate risk from weighing pros and cons and hope to get lucky. We can minimize the risk and maximize some luck though if we know what we are looking for. What I like to look for mostly is buying low on teams that have a high powered offense or great quarterback. Lets look at a team and two players that are performing differently and why we should be buying or selling them.
Kansas City –
At this moment, Hunt, is one of my favorite targets in fantasy football because of the way he is perceived. His value seems fairly low and people tend to forget this is somebody who ran for 1327 yards with 8 touchdowns and caught 53 balls for 455 yards and 3 touchdowns without Mahomes as quarterback. His games so far have not been impressive and I think there may be no negatives to buying low on this player. He is in one of the most high powered offenses along with being a three down back. The touchdowns and touches will come no matter what. This is great value because of where he is drafted too which was most likely in the first round. If you can get someone to bite for something that is not worth a first round pick, then that is incredible value that should pay off. For the case of selling this player, I would not sell this player for anything that isn’t worth the spot you drafted him at. Do not let someone swoop in and take this player off your hands at a bargain price.
Tyreek Hill has had a pretty good start to the year. But before we get into what we should do with him lets look at what happened to Hill last year. Throughout the whole year last year he was insanely inconsistent. If you want to look at standard scoring between the weeks of 1-7 it goes 19.8, 4.9, 15.0, 3.5, 6.8, 2.5, 19.2. With wide receivers who don’t get for sure touches like running backs I like to look at trends. This trend along with the trend that has already happened this year, as his points have gone way down every week, is a very important thing to look at. This shows inconsistency and a tendency to be a boom or bust player. I think the value for Hill is still sky high, as it should be with Mahomes, which is why I say approach this with precaution and risk. Mahomes is not Alex Smith. I would say that Tyreek Hill is a perfect sell high candidate and his value is still as high as can be. People may be looking at him as an elite top five receiver, but, it’ll be a high price and may not be worth it.
The New England Patriots –
“So many demands, so little production. (Courtesy of NY Post)
Gronk is one of my favorite players in fantasy football. Not for the stats he puts up but for the value he has. Every year I somehow get Gronk just to trade him because it’s a name that people just love. Even how inconsistent the patriots will be and how they may rest Gronk and not use him until they have too, people will always buy him. For that reason I say always sell Gronk high. This year is a little different. Most years Gronk comes out hot and performs like the price tag is, this year he has not and patriots look a little lost. This does not mean you can’t sell high on him. But, let’s look at something else. Let’s look at why you should be buying Gronk. This is a special year where Gronk really was demanding more money and Belichick gave him a chance to make it. This was done through incentives and quotas he had to hit so this is where it gets interesting. To make the extra 3.3 million this year Gronk has to have 70 catches, play in 80 percent of the offensive snaps, have 9 receiving touchdowns, plus have 1,085 yards. Gronk really wants this money so ill assume he will be doing everything he can to hit these quotas which makes him a good buy low target.
Now we are onto Tom Brady. Tom has a very similar incentive base salary worked into his contract. I don’t think I can qualify him as a sell high target outside of his name, unlike most years where you could. The plus side to this is that he is an extremely good buy low target and could be worth a reasonable price. Brady’s incentives this year include him finishing in the top five in these categories: Quarterback rating, Completion Percentage, Yards per pass attempt, Touchdown passes, and Passing Yards. If we know anything about Brady it is that he is going to be fighting hard for every last one of those and would then put him as one of the top quarterback performers in fantasy football. With a healthy Edelman and what looks like a rejuvenated Gordon he could have a strong three quarters of a football season.
The Injured Players –
Just going to go list off a few injured players that you might want to target as buy low options:
Leonard Fournette– A top twenty pick in most leagues, Fournette has battled hamstring issues and seems to be a headache for most owners. He is worth equal value to where he was drafted.
Joe Mixon– A versatile running back on a good offensive team that may miss a few more weeks due to cleaning his knee out. He was seen at practice this week which is promise and is averaging almost 5 YPC.
Doug Baldwin– A number one receiver with Russel Wilson as his quarterback could have a strong second half surge if he comes back well and ready. If you cannot obtain I recommend Tyler Lockett in his absence as he is looking to be a favorite target of Wilson.
Greg Olsen– Cam Newtons favorite target is a top 5 tight end when healthy, but comes with obvious health concerns. Do not give an arm and a leg for him but if you are looking for a consistent tight end when healthy, look no further.